Press Release—Biden’s Gains with Evangelical Voters Expected to Net Him 6+ Million Additional Votes

For Immediate Release

November 3, 2020

Biden’s Gains with Evangelical Voters Expected to Net Him 6+ Million Additional Votes

Evangelical shift will net more votes than 50% increase in turnout by young voter or college-educated women.

The final polls of 2020 indicate Joe Biden is on pace to net 13 points with white evangelicals compared to Clinton’s performance in 2016. This would net Biden 6 million voters at 2016 turnout rates and significantly more at expected 2020 rates (1).

To put those numbers in perspective, if voters under 30 turned out at a rate 50% higher than they did in 2016, that would net Biden 4.3 million votes.  If white college educated women turned out at a rate 50% higher than their 2016 levels, that would net Biden 5.1 million votes (2).

Shifts in faith voters’ support have outsized impacts on the election with white evangelicals and white catholics making up 49% of American voters in 2016. Joe Biden has invested heavily in engaging faith voters, outspending Donald Trump 50 to 1 (3).

Evangelicals for Biden (EvangelicalsForBiden.com)

Contact: Rev. Jim Ball, 202-744-5615

Footnotes 

1. (2016 Exit Polls) (Marist). 36.14 million white evangelical voters in 2016. (2016 Exit Polls). A 50% increase in turnout would equal 18.1 million new white evangelical voters in 2020, with polling showing Biden netting 13% of that vote for 5.76 million votes.

2. 27.8 million college educated women voted in 2016 (2016 Exit Polls) A 50% increase in turnout would equal 13.9 million new college educated women voters in 2020, with polling showing Biden netting 36% of that vote. (Marist) There were 26.5 voters under 30 in 2016. (2016 Exit Polls) A 50% increase in their turnout would add 13.25 million new young voters with current polling showing Biden netting 33% of that vote. (Marist)

3. (Impact 2020).